The world is increasingly expected to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C global warming threshold, leaving governments with an urgent challenge: limit how far temperatures rise above the target and how long the overshoot lasts.
Current national climate commitments, if fully implemented, would put the planet on a trajectory of approximately 2.3°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, with the past 11 years the hottest on record.
Even if existing national climate plans and additional net-zero commitments are fully implemented, warming could still peak at around 1.8°C, according to a recent UN Environment Programme assessment, with countries' updated plans expected to reduce emissions by only around 10 per cent by 2035 when 60 per cent is needed.
Financing remains one of the largest obstacles, with developing countries facing significantly higher borrowing costs for renewable energy infrastructure even in regions with substantial clean-energy potential.
The issue moves to the centre of international diplomacy on 23 September, when the Secretary-General convenes a Climate Summit at UN Headquarters focused on accelerating the energy transition and unlocking climate finance.